The exact mathematical formulation of new System Method based on ideas of “system potential” and “conditions of its realization” is given. Cyclical dynamics of “efficiency of work” of a complex adaptive system follows from this Method. These cycles have the properties like to the...

This paper investigates the causes of business cycle fluctuations that Japan experienced over the period 1980 to 2000. To this end, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous borrowing constraints where business cycle fluctuations are the result of TFP fluctuations and...

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

Most studies that emphasize and encourage the shift towards a less regulated and financially open system rest on the premise of a prosperous growth prospect. Accordingly, interests have focused on growth models as a framework to understand and to analyze the effects of economic freedom. In this...

It is proposed to consider the business cycle as hysteresis loop with fluctuating limiting points. Concept is based on the Method of System Potential, (Proceedings of International System Dynamics Conference 2003, No.56) which describes dynamics of spontaniously arising Complex Systems as the...

In this article, the predictability performance of certain classical business cycle theories are tested against contemporary statistical methods by using Finnish macroeconomic data. Keynesian multiplier- accelerator model derivatives and neo-classical real business cycle models are compared to...

Despite his emphasis on the speculative character of investment decisions, Minsky paid little attention to asset price speculation per se, ignoring asset price bubbles and their macroeconomic effects. That is perhaps because his views were formed during the era of financial regulation, when...

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s. After a literature review on the empirical results in individual euro area countries we review some theoretical arguments why real narrow money growth might be an important determinant of...