This paper traces the euro zone’s inadequate macroeconomic performance in recent years back to the predominance of a restrictive macroeconomic policy mix based on a ‘new monetarist’ approach to economic policy. An approach based on a (post-)Keynesian analysis is presented as a growth and...

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a monetary union, which is characterized by asymmetric interest rate transmission. This asymmetry gives rise to intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs. The direction...

This paper traces the euro zone’s inadequate macroeconomic performance in recent years back to the predominance of a restrictive macroeconomic policy mix based on a ‘new monetarist’ approach to economic policy. An approach based on a (post-)Keynesian analysis is presented as a growth and...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

The introduction of a common monetary policy in eleven European countries increased the need for leading indicators for that area. A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference...

Currency and financial crises are determinants of growth and development, mainly in developing countries subject to shocks, contagion and volatility. A relevant issue when trying to do the implementation of development policies is to anticipate or forecast the occurrence of currency crises that...

In this paper we consider the problem of sequential detecting change points in economic time series. We compare the performances of three well known procedures, Shiryayev-Roberts, CUSUM and EWMA, in the problem of early detection of the US business cycle turning points using leading indicators...

Monetary policy has been usually analyzed in the context of small macroeconomic models where central banks are allowed to exploit a limited amount of information. Under these frameworks, researchers typically derive the optimality of aggressive monetary rules, contrasting with the observed...

This paper investigates in a consistent semi-structural empirical framework three current issues of monetary policy in the euro area. First, regarding policy transmission we offer a three-stage procedure to combine the efficient estimation of economic structure prior to EMU with current ECB...

We calculate an "enlarged" Phillips curve for a theoretical EMU with 12+8 Member States. Both the empirical evidence and the econometric analysis show the worsening of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment, and hence the need to revise, at least temporarily, the stance of the ECB...