A family of credit risk models is proposed to capture three salient features of Latin American (LA) Sovereign Bond Markets: individual Long Range Dependence in volatility---Long Memory (LM)---, high fractional comovement and time varying risk premia. Evidence in favor of LM is uncovered and the...

The purpose of this paper is to put the future of the US dollar into a logical framework which comprises the global development mechanism. Two models of growth collide: the US «locomotive», based on the international use of the dollar, and which requires exogenous pushes coming permanently...

This paper employs ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the effect of FDI on per capita GDP growth in Bolivia over the period 1990:1-1998:4. The regression results find that the real effective multilateral exchange rate, the...

We impose a structure on the short-run market inefficiencies in the asset markets and use this structure to identify a structural vector autoregressive model. This novel identification method is based on more reasonable assumptions than the standard approaches and also gives estimates for...

This paper studies the time-variant interactions among US stocks, emerging market bonds and US low-grade corporate bonds. All of these assets are characterized by a similar average return, but returns are far from being perfectly correlated. Therefore, investing in these different assets...

Increasingly, in regional agreements, large economies, e.g. U.S. and E.U., offer lower trade barriers in exchange for cooperation by small economies in environmental, intellectual property and other issues. What is the effect of such agreements on multilateral trade liberalization? We show that,...

In this paper we extend the macroeconometric model developed in Bagnai (2004) by linking it to a submodel for the Japanese economy, and we utilize this extended model to investigate several hypotheses of reduction in the US twin deficits. The Japanese submodel is specified and estimated along...

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Calvo and Reinhart 2001, 2002) argue...

The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, I investigate whether numerous debt initiatives during the 1980s and 1990s have had a significant effect on economic growth rates in developing countries in general. The major initiatives during that time period were negotiated as bilateral agreements...

This paper shows that many East Asian firms are significantly exposed to foreign exchange risk. Their exposure appears to be much more widespread than is typical for the large, western industrialized economies. The paper also shows that exchange rate pegs appear to do little to alleviate this...