This paper challenges the view that external shocks caused Euroland's 2001 slowdown and subsequent stagnation. Instead, the design of Euroland's macro policymaking arrangements is found lacking in looking after sufficient domestic demand growth. In the event the ECB has failed on its...

The aggregate demand and supply model (ADAS) is interpreted as a synthesis of the Keynesian and neoclassical models. It uses the ISLM model, without explaining its nature, to derive aggregate demand (AD). It is combined with an aggregate supply (AS) curve to explain price- inflation and output...

One of the most often discussed features of the Stability and Growth Pact is the rigidity of its 3% deficit rule. In the recent time several reform proposals aim at alleviating the rule in order to allow more room for the automatic stabilizers to operate. As the 3% limit became in the recent...

Using a dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural VARs, we decompose inflation and output movements into those attributable to terms of trade, supply, balance-of-payments, fiscal, and monetary shocks. Empirical results show that terms of...

This paper presents a procedure for clustering analysis that combines Kohone’s Self organizing Feature Map (SOFM) and statistical schemes. The idea is to cluster the data in two stages: run SOFM and then minimize the segmentation dispersion. The advantages of proposed procedure will be...

The European Union and its Member States have been engaged in product market reforms over a long period with notable reforms including the Single Market Program and the Lisbon Agenda launched in March 2000. Product market reforms are seen as exerting both a direct and an indirect impact on...

It is proposed to consider the business cycle as hysteresis loop with fluctuating limiting points. Concept is based on the Method of System Potential, (Proceedings of International System Dynamics Conference 2003, No.56) which describes dynamics of spontaniously arising Complex Systems as the...

This paper introduces an upgraded version of MSVARlib, a Gauss and Ox- Gauss compliant library, focusing on Multivariate Markov Switching Regressions in their most general specification. This new set of procedures allows to estimate, through classical optimization methods, models belonging to...

The extraction of a common signal from a group of time series is generally obtained using variables recorded with the same frequency or transformed to have the same frequency (monthly, quarterly, etc.). The statistical literature has not paid a great deal of attention to this topic. In this...

Prevailing trade theory is a neglected stepchild of economics. Micro rejects the sole reason for trade’s occurrence. It declares zero profit in equilibrium. Monetary theory and macroeconomics dismiss concerns of trade financing. They assert that money has nothing to do with traded output, but...