This paper introduces a nonparametric binary classification tree approach to inferring unobserved strategies from the observed actions of economic agents. The strategies are in the form of possibly nested if- then statements. We apply our approach to experimental data from the repeated ultimatum...

The current research emphasis on institutions as key determinants of economic performance, rather than on resources and resource productivity, has uncovered important questions for further research. For example, if institutions are central to economic performance, then what explains observed...

Institutions either promote or constrain economic performance, but which parts of institutions advance or restrict performance, and why do economies sharing similar institutions sometimes perform differently? This paper is a modest attempt at addressing a small part of these questions. It...

This paper decomposes the large regression residuals of income across 84 U.S. Native American economies (USNAEs) into Solow and Solow-like parts. Decomposition is accomplished algebraically. The calculations find a weak to negative correlation between income and Solow residuals, and a strong...

I estimate a life cycle model of consumption choice with unemployment risk. Employed individuals face the risk of losing their job. Unemployed agents receive job random offers of different quality, which they can accept or reject. Following the loss of a job and during unemployment, an agent’s...

Successful descriptions of the short-term nominal interest rate inertial behavior have frequently been obtained with small scale macro models in which a Central Banker minimizes a loss function containing an argument labelled as interest rate smoothing. The rationale for this argument is not...

We study the behavior of real exchange rates in a two­country dynamic equilibrium model. In this model, consumers can only consume domestic goods but can invest costlessly in capital stocks of both countries. Nevertheless, transporting goods between the two countries is costly and, hence, the...

Credit risk models like Moody’s KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable estimates of default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds....

This paper proposes an estimate of the Hungarian real exchange rate=20 misalignments using fractionally integrated threshold models (FI-STARMA and=20= FI-TARMA=20 processes). This allows us to simultaneously take into account two types of=20 persistence: a long memory behavior due to the...