This paper models an inflation forecast density framework that closely resembles actual policy makers behaviour regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in the inflation forecasts. The framework combines policy makers prior information about these parameters...

Morocco and Tunisia have started to open their markets to international trade and capital flows in order to bolster investment and growth. These liberalization programs require important adjustments in their economic policies, in particular their exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. This...

This paper attempts to provide an empirical determination of the Philippine central bank's (BSP) recent monetary policy stance, before and after its adoption of the inflation targeting framework, as revealed by its interest rate setting behavior. Employing Clarida, Gali, and Gertler's (1998,...

Pareto-efficient consumption in a pure-exchange, one good economy varies over states of nature with respect to only two factors: real aggregate supply and individual utility shocks. One’s optimal contract receipts vary with respect to only these two factors and the ratio of one’s endowment...

Challenging the conventional wisdom that structural problems are to blame for the euro area’s protracted domestic demand stagnation, this paper sets out to shed some fresh light on the role of the ECB in the ongoing EMU crisis. Contrary to the widely held interpretation of the ECB as an...

El objetivo de este paper es realizar una descripción del caso brasileño, en lo que hace a la salida de un sistema en el cual el ancla nominal de la economía era un tipo de cambio semi-fijo, hacia un régimen de flotación “cuasi” limpia de la moneda, en el que el ancla de la economía...

This paper asks to what extent the market prices in the future monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB), how this policy predictability has evolved over time, and whether the change in the central bank’s forecasting methodology in mid-2002 had any impact. Using a sample up to...

Most prices and interest rates display fluctuating levels that embody extractable energy and equivalent amounts of money. Such fluctuations are also associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. Shannon's derivations of spectral entropy and information content offer computational techniques...

Inflation targeting is a regime based to a great extent on communication and, more specifically, on using and communicating assessments of future inflation. The central banking literature, however, devotes surprisingly little attention to some important issues connected with such assessments....

This study attempts to examine the minimum requirements for adopting an inflation targeting framework in Malawi. First, we examined four pre- requisites of an inflation targeting framework: a fairy long track record of low and stable inflation; a degree of independence; having a sole target; and...