The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the 1985 “Employment Services for Ex-Offenders†(ESEO) program on recidivism. Initially, the sample has been split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. However, the actual treatment (mainly being job related...

In this paper the asymptotic properties of ARMA processes with complex- conjugate unit roots in the AR lag polynomial are studied. These processes behave quite differently from processes with a single root equal to 1. In particular, the asymptotic properties of a standardized version of the...

Breeden, Gibbons and Litzenberger (1989), and Lamont (1999), use "economic tracking portfolios" to forecast macroeconomic data. Tracking portfolios are constructed to reflect market expectations and reveal the impact of news. However, these papers, as well as many related studies which examine...

Granger (1980) summarizes his personal viewpoint on testing for causality, and outlines what he considers to be a useful operational version of his original definition of causality (Granger (1969)), which he notes was partially alluded to in Wiener (1958). This operational version is based on a...

This paper analyzes conditions under which various k-class estimators are asymptotically normal in a simultaneous equations framework with many weak instruments. In particular, our paper extends the many instruments asymptotic normality results obtained by Morimune (1983), Bekker (1994), Angrist...

This paper develops Wald-type tests for general (possibly nonlinear) restrictions in the context of a weakly-identified heteroskedastic IV regression. In particular, it is first shown that, in a framework with many weak instruments, consistency and asymptotic normality can be obtained when...

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...