This paper uses the flexible approach of Hamilton (2001) to investigate the nature of nonlinearities in the term structure. The paper reports clear evidence of nonlinearity, in contrast to the affine term structure model and consistent with recent claims in the literature. We find that there is...

In continuous time specifications, the prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameter of the associated interest rate diffusion equation. This parameter is well known to be subject to estimation bias when standard methods like maximum likelihood...

This paper considers the dynamics for interest rate processes within the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification. It is well known that one of the difficulties in using this specification for estimation is the non-Markovian nature of the dynamics. The paper focuses on a fairly broad family...

The literature gives evidence that term spreads help predict output growth, inflation, and interest rates. This paper integrates and explains these predictability results by using an affine term structure model with observable macroeconomic factors. The results suggest that consumers are willing...

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short-run dynamics of the...

Yield spread between long and short bonds has been used to forecast economic activity for a long time and has yielded some positive results, particularly for the U.S. data. Recently it has been shown that the forecast can be improved by incorporating the economic activity variable into a term...

We introduce continuous-time models that capture the salient features of the short-term interest rate and remain tractable for asset pricing applications. We extend classical specifications within and outside of the affine class to multi-factor settings with latent variables that are readily...

This paper incorporates the systematic risk of regime shifts into a general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model shows that there is a new source of time-variation in bond term premiums in the presence of regime shifts. This new component is a regime-switching...

This paper integrates two strands of studies on consumer demand and consumption and provides a unified framework for analyzing consumer behavior employing an intertemporal two-stage budgeting procedure. We take a modified AIDS framework for the demand system and derive a general Euler equation...

It is known that stock returns are affected by monetary policy. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates whether asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public causes the relation between stock returns and monetary policy actions. The paper concludes that...