The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is...

This paper reexamines the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on the real GDP in the presense of entrepreneurship - firms' activities to predict and react to changes in consumers' taste. The existence of partial crowding out in this paper generates a trade off between private consumption and...

Central banks behave purposefully when they set monetary policy, basing their decisions upon the data that is available and upon their understanding of the economy. At the same time, policy decisions affect economic outcomes, and the likelihood of observing a given state of the world. This paper...