One of the key inputs for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures. These pressures are usually approximated by the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component...

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear difference equations. We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses `Euroland' and US data. The debate has been centered around the...

We develop a model of a small open economy with three types of nominal rigidities (domestic goods prices, imported goods prices and wages) and eight different structural shocks. We estimate the model's structural parameters using a maximum likelihood procedure and use it to compute...

We analyze the compliance behavior of the small-scale fishery boat-owners of the Galapagos Marine Reserve. Our empirical analysis considers aspects related to the participatory management system of the reserve as determinant factors of the decision to violate the regulations. The econometric...

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...

The present paper is related to the recent discussion about the efficiency of the Reserve Federal Bank on investment decisions. Our aim is not to propose an optimal policy rule but rather to appreciate and to understand the link between the monetary interventions of the FED and capital...

Different criteria exist to define long memory behavior. The two most used relate to the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function of a process, and to the shape of its spectral density. In the case of a long memory process, the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function is...

Forecasting inflation remains an intriguing research topic among academics and practitioners alike. Recent studies by Stock and Watson (1999 JME, 2003 JEL) have documented the limited usefulness of Phillip curve type models using unemployment or other macroeconomic and financial variables for...

We develop LM-tests of linearity that are consistent against a class of Compound Smooth Transition Autoregressive (CoSTAR) models of the conditional mean. Our method is an extension of the sup-test developed by Bierens (1990) and Bierens and Plobeger (1997), provides maximal power against...