Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and symmetric loss. While the literature has attempted to explain this bias through forecasters' strategic behavior, we propose a simpler explanation based on...

We study how heterogeneous beliefs affect returns and examine whether heterogeneous beliefs are a priced factor in traditional asset pricing models. To accomplish this task, we suggest new empirical measures based on the disagreement among analysts about expected (short-term and long-term)...

This paper explores the quantitative impact of the Baby Boom on stock and bond returns. It constructs a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations, in which agents make a portfolio decision over risky capital and safe bonds in zero net supply. The model has exogenous technology and...

In this paper, we investigate the role of the components of demographic change on economic development. Population growth has both positive and negative effects on income growth. Kelley and Schmidt (1995) states that high birth rates are costly in terms of growth but this effect can be offset by...

This paper uses Generational Accounting to assess the fiscal impacts of Korean reunification. Our findings suggest that early reunification will result in a large increase in the fiscal burden for most current and future generations of South Koreans. The Korean reunification’s fiscal...

This paper investigates whether there is a non-linear relationship between income and the private transfers received by households in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, expansion of public social security is unlikely to crowd out private transfers,...

In previous research, I find that a reduction of the cost-of-living adjustment has performed quite well in comparisons among different Social Security reform proposals. While a COLA reduction contains many positive features, there is some concern that it would push the most vulnerable members of...

The goal of this paper is to determine the effects of different social security regimes on job search. A less generous pension system induces higher savings across the life cycle and makes agents wealthier and thus more reluctant to accept low wage offers. On the other hand, as the social...

In this paper we review the main features of the Chilean-Style of capital controls during the nineties. In particular, we analyze empirically the effectiveness of the unremunerated reserve requirement (URR) in three key areas: its capacity to open space for monetary policy, its influence on the...

Much of the endogenous growth literature has dwelled on evaluating the spillover effects of trade on growth, but much less efforts have been directed towards tracing and quantifying the spillover effects of foreign investments. This paper, in incorporating the effects of various types of foreign...