In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is...

This paper examines the welfare implications of managing Q with inflation targeting by monetary authorities who have to "learn" the laws of motion for both inflation and the rate of growth of Q. Our results show that the Central Bank can achieve great success in reducing the volatility of GDP...

This paper develops a theory of strategic trading in markets with large influential arbitrageurs. If arbitrageurs are not very well-capitalized, margin requirements or capital constraints make their trades predictable. Other market participants can exploit this by trading against them....

Traders with short horizons and privately known trading limits interact in a market for a risky asset. Risk-averse, long horizon traders supply a downward sloping residual demand curve that face the short-horizon traders. When the price falls close to the trading limits of the short horizon...

Using more than two years of daily interest rate cap price data, this paper provides a systematic documentation of a volatility smile in cap prices. We find that Black (1976) implied volatilities exhibit an asymmetric smile (sometimes called a sneer) with a stronger skew for in-the-money caps...

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price...

This paper develops a theory of strategic trading in markets with large influential arbitrageurs. If arbitrageurs are not very well-capitalized, margin requirements or capital constraints make their trades predictable. Other market participants can exploit this by trading against them....

We propose a new model for the variance between multiple time series, the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation. We decompose the covariances into correlations and standard deviations and the correlation matrix follow a regime switching model; it is constant within a regime but different across...

This paper studies predatory trading: trading that induces and/or exploits other investors' need to reduce their positions. We show that if one trader needs to sell, others also sell and subsequently buy back the asset. This leads to price overshooting, and a reduced liquidation value for the...