curve, are also associated with large inflation forecasting errors. In principle, these movements are consistent with a … makes significant improvements in the static and dynamic out of sample inflation forecasting performance of the Phillips …

transition function and proposed the variable addition tests as the tests of linearity against smooth transition nonlinearity …

structure. The paper reports clear evidence of nonlinearity, in contrast to the affine term structure model and consistent with … does not capture the entire nature of the nonlinearity. The quadratic term structure model recently proposed performs … better for capturing the nonlinearity than the threshold model but the former model seems to miss some aspect of nonlinearity …

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non … distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most likely in estimated forecasting models. Structural breaks, rather than …

hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of …

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …