Showing 1 - 10 of 87
, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702549
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the weekend and holiday calendar effects are much stronger and statistically significant in volatility as opposed to expected returns. This paper seeks an explanation for this empirical finding by undertaking a comprehensive investigation of the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702592
Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explana-tory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent “microstruc-ture approach to exchange rates” has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328945
We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for U.S. global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005329018
rate returns. The present endeavor will follow Mark and Sul (2001) approach for forecasting in the case of Panel Data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086422
The usual index of leading indicators has constant weights on its components and is therefore implicitly premised on the assumption that the dynamical properties of the economy remain the same over time and across phases of the business cycle. We explore the possibility that the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328932
This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328915
produce large reductions in the out-of-sample prediction mean squared error and provides a useful alternative to forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342193
hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063677
Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and symmetric loss. While the literature has attempted to explain this bias through forecasters' strategic behavior, we propose a simpler explanation based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702628