Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...

A leading explanation of aggregate stock market behavior suggests that assets are priced as if there were a representative investor whose utility is a power function of the difference between aggregate consumption and a "habit" level, where the habit is some function of lagged and (possibly)...

In this paper we investigate portfolio coskewness using a quadratic market model as return generating process. It is shown that portfolios of small (large) firms have negative (positive) coskewness with market. An asset pricing model including coskewness is tested through the restrictions it...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted under the assumption of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function optimal forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors should be serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with...

A common problem in out-of-sample prediction is that there are potentially many relevant predictors that individually have only weak explanatory power. We propose bootstrap aggregation of pre-test predictors (or bagging for short) as a means of constructing forecasts from multiple regression...

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...

Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...

One of the lessons of the treatment effects literature is the lack of consensus about the ability of statistical and econometric methods to replicate experimental estimates. In this paper, we provide new evidence using an unusual unemployment insurance experiment that allows the identification...

This paper presents calculations of semiparametric efficiency bounds for quantile treatment effects parameters when selection to treatment is based on observable characteristics. The paper also presents three estimation procedures for these parameters, all of which have two steps: a...

I examine the statistical model of permanent and transitory shocks to output under the following structural assumptions: An aggregate supply shock that raises output will cause the price level to fall and an aggregate demand shock that initially raises output will cause the price level to rise....