This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production (seasonally adjusted). The emphasis is on one-quarter ahead prediction, especially over the 1990s recession. Linear specifications considered are univariate...

Following on from the work of Birchenhall, Jessen, Osborn & Simpson (JBES, 1999) on predicting US business cycle regimes we apply the same methodology to construct a one period ahead model of classical business cycle regimes in the UK. Birchenhall et al (1999) used regime data implied by the...