This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …

produce large reductions in the out-of-sample prediction mean squared error and provides a useful alternative to forecasting …

hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of …

, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on …

-sample and out-of-sample density forecasts for assessing the adequacy of the conditional distribution. We also use Bayes factors … as a likelihood-based framework for evaluating the SV specifications. Bayes factors account for both estimation and model …

internationally and temporally comparable data on real gross domestic product (GDP) expressed in a common currency unit. The …, provides estimates of purchasing power parities (PPPs) as the most robust and appropriate converter of nominal GDP into a … providing extensive tabulations of real GDP data for a large number of countries and for a 50-year period covering both …

which the central bank has imperfect knowledge and has to learn the private sector forecasting rule for short-term interest …