In this paper, we set out the JEM (Japanese Economic Model), a large macroeconomic model of the Japanese Economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas (1976) critique of traditional large macroeconomic models, it can also be used for both...

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) have become a standard tool used to determine the roles of monetary policy shocks in generating cyclical fluctuations in the United States. Using both long- and short-run identifying restrictions, various authors have explored the empirical response of...

This paper presents a generalized two-step maximum likelihood estimation method for partially identified vector autoregressive models. We suggest a likelihood ratio test for over-identification in a sub-system and derive the asymptotics for impulse responses and forecast-error variance...

This paper surveys the economic literature on simple policy rules and analyzes econometric methods used to estimate them, emphasizing effects of model misspecification. We draw attention to inconsistencies in evaluation of the rules and implications for policy advice, which is commonly done...

ABSTRACT This study re-examines the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals link with in a panel data framework. Pure time series and pooled time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models (Sarantis (1994) and Groen (2000)). Using recently developed Panel...

This paper develops concordance indices for studying the simultaneous occurrence of financial crises across markets and/or countries. The typically low incidence of financial crises necessitates a change in the definition of concordance from those recently developed for the business cycle...

The paper develops a unit-root test that allows for an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown functional forms. The test is based on the fact that the behavior of such series can often be captured using a single frequency component of a Fourier approximation. Hence, instead of...

This paper uses dynamic factor analysis to investigate the sources of foreign shocks and the propagation mechanism of these disturbances into two small open economies, Australia and Canada. Panels including a variety of foreign and domestic series for each country are used to estimate the...

The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is...