We analyze the issue of the impact of multiple breaks on monetary neutrality results, using annual data on real output and monetary aggregates for Argentina (1884-1996), Australia (1870-1997), Brazil (1912-1995), Canada (1870-2001), Italy (1870-1997), Mexico (1932-2000), Sweeden (1871-1988), and...

This paper investigates causes of the recent sharp decline in the money multiplier in Japan from the bank side. Two candidates for the cause are examined: the first is the worsening of the banks’ financial soundness, and the second is the zero interest rate policy. Using panel data of...

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time...

Extant estimates of the welfare cost of business cycles suggest that this cost is quite low and might well be minuscule. Those estimates are based on consumption data for the United States as a whole. The volatility of aggregate consumption, however, is much stronger at the state level. We argue...

How large are welfare costs related to economic aggregate fluctuations is a topic of great concern among economists at least since Robert Lucas’ well-known and thoughtprovoking exercise in the late 1980s. Our analysis assesses the magnitude of such costs for 11 countries in South America...

This paper examines the relationship of business cycles, the terms of trade and Tobin's q using a three-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy. Results show that terms of trade shocks account for half of actual volatility of GDP and stock market indices for...