Uhlig, Harald - Econometric Society - 2004
This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real GNP. It does so by searching for two … shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP … for horizons between 0 and 5 years. We find that two shocks can typically explain more than 90\% of the variance at all …