) agents do not have perfect rationality; ii) the imperfection in the agents expectations generating process may be an …

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …

produce large reductions in the out-of-sample prediction mean squared error and provides a useful alternative to forecasting …

hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between leading indicators representing expectations, investments … indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of …

, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on …

Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint hypothesis of … rational expectations and symmetric loss. While the literature has attempted to explain this bias through forecasters …