Showing 1 - 10 of 111
spurious Granger causality will be more common however numerically insignificant. Forecasting volatility, it is generally … advisable to aggregate forecasts of the disaggregate series rather than forecasting the aggregated series directly, and unlike …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328998
Recorded prices are known to diverge from their "efficient" values due to the presence of market microstructure contaminations. The microstructure noise creates a dichotomy in the model-free estimation of integrated volatility. While it is theoretically necessary to sum squared returns that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005129773
It is a well accepted fact that stock returns data are often contaminated by market microstructure effects, such as bid-ask spreads, liquidity ratios, turnover, and asymmetric information. This is particularly relevant when dealing with high frequency data, which are often used to compute model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702555
Implied volatility generated from observed option prices reflects market expectations of future volatility. This paper determines whether or not, implied volatilities, and hence market expectations, contain any genuinely forward looking information not already captured by historical information....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702557
It is a well accepted fact that stock returns data are often characterized by market microstructure effects, such as bid-ask spreads, liquidity ratios, turnover and asymmetric information. This is particularly relevant when dealing with high frequency data, which are often used to compute model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702617
compare the forecasting performance of the fractional (at zero and cyclical) models with other based on fractional and integer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063571
The paper considers tests for structural change in time series regression models where both regressors and residuals may exhibit long range dependence. The limiting distribution of the test statistic depends on unknown parameters and is approximated by a bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063603
The possibility of confusing long memory behavior with structural changes need to specify what kind of long memory behavior is concerned in literature and applications. One attraction of long memory models is that they imply different long run predictions and effects of shocks to conventional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063626
modelling and forecasting of mean and variance functions of spot prices for electricity and associated contingent assets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063668
Long memory models have been successfully used to investigate the dynamic time-series behavior of inflation rates based on the CPI and WPI. However, almost no attention has been paid to import and export price inflation, nor to the terms of trade which they make up. This article investigates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702737