When univariate methods are applied to real exchange rates, point estimates of autoregressive coefficients typically imply very slow rates of mean reversion. Rogoff (1996) discusses that the remarkable consensus of 3-5 year half-lives of purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations is found among...

In spite of the concerns about "twin deficits" (fiscal and current account deficits) for the U.S., empirical evidence suggests that “twin divergence” is a more regular feature of the data: when the fiscal accounts worsen, the current account improves and vice versa. We thus study empirically...

Looking closely at the PPP argument, it states that the currencies purchasing power should not change when comparing the same basket goods across countries, and these goods should all be tradable. Hence, if PPP is valid at all, it should be captured by the relative price indices that best fits...

The research addresses three methodological questions that are central to effective exchange rate and macroeconomic management: what are the determinants and how to model the real exchange rate (RER), how to estimate its equilibrium level, and how to quantify the likely impact of misalignment on...

This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatil- ity. We model two channels endogenously in a Ricardian framework: (i) non- tradability and (ii) heterogeneous suppliers of traded goods. The ¯rst channel is examined by constructing a two-country Ricardian model of...

The paper considers tests for structural change in time series regression models where both regressors and residuals may exhibit long range dependence. The limiting distribution of the test statistic depends on unknown parameters and is approximated by a bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic...

We consider LM-type tests for a unit root allowing for a break in trend at an unknown date. In addition to the minimum LM test statistic, we propose new LM-type tests based on the least squares estimator of the break date under the null. We examine asymptotic behavior under the null hypothesis...

Tests for structural change play an important role in macroeconomics and international finance. We investigate the empirical performance of the Bai and Perron (1998) multiple structural change tests and show that the use of their critical values may cause severe size distortions in persistent...

Abstract: The paper analyzes cyclical comovements in the Mercosur area differentiating idiosyncratic from common shocks. In the Mercosur (or any region for that matter) shocks can be country-specific, affecting only one country or a specific set of countries (for example, a weather-related...

Since the seminal work of Krugman (1979), product variety has played a central role in models of trade and growth. In spite of the general use of love-of-variety models, there has been no systematic study of how the import of new varieties has contributed to national welfare gains in the United...