on a worker's career profile. We prove, in particular, that price competition among firms causes ex ante inefficient …

second key implication is that career paths are history-dependent. Workers with relatively low performance may be reassigned … productivity shocks can have lasting effects on a worker's career, and there are conditions in which good workers can become … worker's career and relate these patterns to the firm's prior beliefs about worker productivity and to on-the-job performance …

, than in usual years. Comparing the career paths of the entering class of 1973 with those of adjacent cohorts, we do find …