The Stock--Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one-factor model for the component indicators. Such assumption is restrictive in practice, however, with as few as four indicators. In fact, such assumption is unnecessary if one poses the index construction...

Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that allow relatively smooth cycles to be extracted. Posterior densities of...

This paper examines the role of monetary policy in the presence of endogenous time preference. The framework in which this issue is addressed is a monetary model with cash-in-advance constraints and an additional trading friction that is typical of the class of “liquidity models†of...

This paper is an attempt to decompose the average transactions velocity of money into two or more individual velocities. When the economy-wide velocity is expressed as a weighted average of two disaggregated velocities, this provides an equation with two unknowns. The additional equation can be...