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A common problem in out-of-sample prediction is that there are potentially many relevant predictors that individually have only weak explanatory power. We propose bootstrap aggregation of pre-test predictors (or bagging for short) as a means of constructing forecasts from multiple regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342193
An important question in applied work is how to bootstrap autoregressive processes involving highly persistent time series of unknown order of integration. In this paper, we show that in many cases of interest in applied work the standard bootstrap algorithm for unrestricted autoregressions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005129733
Existing methods for constructing confidence bands for multivariate impulse response functions depend on auxiliary assumptions on the order of integration of the variables. Thus, they may have poor coverage at long lead times when variables are highly persistent. Solutions that have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005329012
This paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342192