We compare the performance of a currency board, inflation targeting, and dollarization in a small, open developing economy with a liberalized capital account. We focus on the transmission of shocks to currency and country risk premia and on the role of fluctuations in premia in the propagation...

One of the key inputs for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures. These pressures are usually approximated by the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component...

Can active Taylor rules (i.e. monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation) deliver global equilibrium uniqueness in small open economies? By studying the local and global dynamics of a standard small open economy we point out the misleading...

This paper examines the relationship of business cycles, the terms of trade and Tobin's q using a three-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy. Results show that terms of trade shocks account for half of actual volatility of GDP and stock market indices for...

When univariate methods are applied to real exchange rates, point estimates of autoregressive coefficients typically imply very slow rates of mean reversion. Rogoff (1996) discusses that the remarkable consensus of 3-5 year half-lives of purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations is found among...

Looking closely at the PPP argument, it states that the currencies purchasing power should not change when comparing the same basket goods across countries, and these goods should all be tradable. Hence, if PPP is valid at all, it should be captured by the relative price indices that best fits...

This paper presents a generalized two-step maximum likelihood estimation method for partially identified vector autoregressive models. We suggest a likelihood ratio test for over-identification in a sub-system and derive the asymptotics for impulse responses and forecast-error variance...

We study the role an illiquid durable consumption good plays in determining the level of precautionary savings and the distribution of wealth in a standard Aiyagari model (i.e. a model with heterogeneous agents, idiosyncratic uncertainty, and borrowing constraints). Transactions costs induce an...

Two approaches dominate the time series literature for modeling expected value models. The first one is based on observable variables and includes ARMA and GARCH models, while the second one is based on latent variables and includes state space and stochastic volatility (or SV) models. The first...