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Economic policy decisions are often informed by empirical economic analysis. While the decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, the analyst is interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on the structural features of a model, such as cointegration, can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063701
This paper proposes a Structural Error Correction Model (SECM) that allows concurrent estimation of the structural parameters and analysis of cointegration. We amalgamate the Bayesian methods of Kleibergen and Paap (2002) for analysis of cointegration in the ECM, and the Bayesian methods of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063745
I examine the statistical model of permanent and transitory shocks to output under the following structural assumptions: An aggregate supply shock that raises output will cause the price level to fall and an aggregate demand shock that initially raises output will cause the price level to rise....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005130221
Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342281
In this paper we investigate portfolio coskewness using a quadratic market model as return generating process. It is shown that portfolios of small (large) firms have negative (positive) coskewness with market. An asset pricing model including coskewness is tested through the restrictions it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328981
We analyze the compliance behavior of the small-scale fishery boat-owners of the Galapagos Marine Reserve. Our empirical analysis considers aspects related to the participatory management system of the reserve as determinant factors of the decision to violate the regulations. The econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063572
In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063601
The present paper is related to the recent discussion about the efficiency of the Reserve Federal Bank on investment decisions. Our aim is not to propose an optimal policy rule but rather to appreciate and to understand the link between the monetary interventions of the FED and capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063627
Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063641
Different criteria exist to define long memory behavior. The two most used relate to the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function of a process, and to the shape of its spectral density. In the case of a long memory process, the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063673