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of series by timescales obtained using wavelets, following Ramsey and Lampart (1998). Specifically, we propose the … includes different timescale details obtained using wavelets; this result could be considered as an alternative way to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328904
the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example …, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price changes. On the other hand, statistical properties of monthly price … changes are often not fully covered by a model based on daily price changes. In this paper, we simultaneously model regimes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005329008
The possibility of confusing long memory behavior with structural changes need to specify what kind of long memory behavior is concerned in literature and applications. One attraction of long memory models is that they imply different long run predictions and effects of shocks to conventional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063626
Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that allow relatively smooth cycles to be extracted. Posterior densities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702586
The strong consumption growth in a period of falling stock market and a moderate recession in the U.S. has sparked off a debate about the role of housing wealth as one of the determinants of consumption. The literature is divided over the issue whether the effect of change in the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702625
We consider the behavior of the price of a continuously stored commodity, for which discounted price is a non …-constant martingale, and thus not-predictable. We prove that the discounted price realization is within any given neighborhood of zero … path of discounted price realizations will lie permanently within any given neighborhood of zero beyond a finite state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005699619
The usual index of leading indicators has constant weights on its components and is therefore implicitly premised on the assumption that the dynamical properties of the economy remain the same over time and across phases of the business cycle. We explore the possibility that the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328932