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Chain Reactions, Trade Credit and the Business Cycle

Cardoso-Lecourtois, Miguel - Econometric Society - 2004

borrowing constraints lead to financial arrangements between firms that can amplify the effect of liquidity or productivity … however, is a general equilibrium version of theirs that deals with the aggregate consequences that temporary productivity or … financing to be other firms, the impact of productivity shocks is significant and three times bigger than in an economy with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702640

Welfare Costs of Business Cycles in South America

Nascimento, Leandro; Gomes, Fabio - Econometric Society - 2004

How large are welfare costs related to economic aggregate fluctuations is a topic of great concern among economists at least since Robert Lucasâ€™ well-known and thoughtprovoking exercise in the late 1980s. Our analysis assesses the magnitude of such costs for 11 countries in South America...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005129791

The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

McLellan, Nathan; Buckle, Robert A; Kim, Kunhong - Econometric Society - 2004

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005130253

El ciclo económico en Uruguay - Un modelo de Switching Regimes

Sanchez, Alejandro R. Pena - Econometric Society - 2004

This paper presents an empirical characterization of Uruguayanâ€™s Business Cycle applying the Switching Regime methodology; three scenarios were considered: recession, moderate growth and boom. The relation between regional and Uruguayanâ€™s business cycle is analyzed through the same...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005170251

Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles

Walker, Thomas; Norman, David - Econometric Society - 2004

We use a variety of techniques to examine the nature and degree of co-movement among Australian state business cycles. Our results indicate that these cycles move closely together, with particularly strong links between the cycles of the larger states. This finding is robust to a range of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005170370

Expectation Formation and Endogenous Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand

Dudek, Maciej K. - Econometric Society - 2004

The paper recognizes that expectations and the process of their formation are subject to standard decision making and are determined as a part of equilibrium. Accordingly, the paper presents a basic framework in which the form of expectation formation is a choice variable. At any point in time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328882

The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S.

Robe, Michel A.; Pallage, Stephane - Econometric Society - 2004

Extant estimates of the welfare cost of business cycles suggest that this cost is quite low and might well be minuscule. Those estimates are based on consumption data for the United States as a whole. The volatility of aggregate consumption, however, is much stronger at the state level. We argue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328988

Terms of Trade, Business Cycles and Tobin's q in Developing Open Economies

Pacharoni, Victor - Econometric Society - 2004

This paper examines the relationship of business cycles, the terms of trade and Tobin's q using a three-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy. Results show that terms of trade shocks account for half of actual volatility of GDP and stock market indices for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005699598

Evaluating the Magnitude of Financial Market Frictions: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Levin, Andrew; Natalucci, Fabio - Econometric Society - 2004

We investigate the extent to which firm-level data are consistent with the microeconomic foundations of the benchmark financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). To that purpose, we construct a new dataset that directly links firm-specific balance sheet variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702619

Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates

Wang, Ke; Duffie, Darrell - Econometric Society - 2004

We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702710

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