The usual index of leading indicators has constant weights on its components and is therefore implicitly premised on the assumption that the dynamical properties of the economy remain the same over time and across phases of the business cycle. We explore the possibility that the business cycle...

It is now widely understood how to obtain first-order accurate approximations to the solution to a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model). Such solutions are fairly easy to construct and useful for a wide variety of purposes. They are likely to be accurate enough to be a...

This paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We show that previous studies based on aggregate data are biased due to heterogeneity of individual forecasts. Instead, we estimate a...

We present an algorithm and software routines for computing nth-order approximate solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models around a nonstochastic steady state. We apply these routines to investigate the optimal monetary policy with commitment (and from a ``timeless...

In this paper, we analyze the strength and nature of bequest motives in the United States using data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The results of our analysis suggest that bequest motives are very strong in the United States and that they are altruistically motivated. This...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of individual earnings using data from the Encuesta Suplementaria de Ingresos. We find that the predictable component of income is hump-shaped over the life-cycle, and that there are strong education effects. The unpredictable component of income can be...

Consider a multivariate nonparametric model where the unknown vector of functions depends on two sets of explanatory variables. For a fixed level of one set of explanatory variables, we provide consistent statistical tests, called local rank tests, to determine whether the multivariate...

Consumption is partly a social activity, yet most studies of consumer behavior treat households in isolation. We investigate familial relationships in consumption patterns using a sample of parents and their children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find a positive and statistically...

A partir de la Encuesta Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento (SABE) de la OPS-OMS (2001) se estiman los determinantes del estado de salud para los adultos mayores montevideanos (60 años y más). Se utilizan cuatro aproximaciones a dicho estado: limitaciones funcionales, autopercepción,...

This study,using the Consumer Expenditure Surveys from 1984 through 1998, revisits the widely pronounced retirement-savings puzzle, which claims the existence of a sharp drop in consumption at the time of retirement. In contrast to previous work, I find that consumption of the retired households...