In this paper, we examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved using the …, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on … a two or three equation system involving CPI and PPI inflation where the effects of the exchange rate and import prices …

hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by … indicators. An evaluation of their relative accuracy suggests that the VAR model's forecasting performance is superior to that of …

regression model and provide asymptotic justification for the bagging predictor. A simulation study shows that bagging tends to … produce large reductions in the out-of-sample prediction mean squared error and provides a useful alternative to forecasting … greatly redcues the prediction mean squared error of forecasts of U.S. CPI inflation at horizons of one month and one year …

-of-sample (testing sample) observations in order to evaluate the “goodness-of-fit†of the forecasting model both analytically, as well … as through simulation exercises. Monte Carlo studies revealed that the proposed test has good size and power properties …

accommodates the time dependence structure in the time series data. A straightforward forecasting model using the independent … factors is then compared with the forecasting models using the principal components in Stock and Watson (2002). The results of … compression. Whether the ICA method is superior over the principal component method in forecasting the U.S. real output and …

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …