We study how heterogeneous beliefs affect returns and examine whether heterogeneous beliefs are a priced factor in traditional asset pricing models. To accomplish this task, we suggest new empirical measures based on the disagreement among analysts about expected (short-term and long-term)...

This paper explores the quantitative impact of the Baby Boom on stock and bond returns. It constructs a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations, in which agents make a portfolio decision over risky capital and safe bonds in zero net supply. The model has exogenous technology and...

Survey data on expectations frequently find evidence that forecasts are biased, rejecting the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and symmetric loss. While the literature has attempted to explain this bias through forecasters' strategic behavior, we propose a simpler explanation based on...

This paper considers the dynamics for interest rate processes within the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification. It is well known that one of the difficulties in using this specification for estimation is the non-Markovian nature of the dynamics. The paper focuses on a fairly broad family...

Researchers, policymakers, and parents are giving education reforms involving expanded school choice increased attention. Many view the heightened competition that would presumably result from such reforms as a panacea for the ills currently plaguing the public education system in the US....

This paper develops Wald-type tests for general (possibly nonlinear) restrictions in the context of a weakly-identified heteroskedastic IV regression. In particular, it is first shown that, in a framework with many weak instruments, consistency and asymptotic normality can be obtained when...

This paper considers models with time-varying individual effects (also known as factor models). The paper extends Ahn, Lee and Schmidt, Journal of Econometrics, 2001 and Bai, Econometrica, 2003 to allow a parametric function of time for the time factor. It provides a fixed-effects treatment of...

This paper proposes shrinkage methods in instrumental variable estimations to solve the ``many instruments'' problem. Even though using a large number of instruments reduces the asymptotic variances of the estimators, it has been observed both in theoretical works and in practice that in finite...

Instrumental Variables (IV) methods identify internally valid causal effects for individuals whose treatment status is manipulable by the instrument at hand. Inference for other populations inevitably requires some sort of homogeneity assumption. I develop a simple theoretical framework that...

This paper analyzes conditions under which various k-class estimators are asymptotically normal in a simultaneous equations framework with many weak instruments. In particular, our paper extends the many instruments asymptotic normality results obtained by Morimune (1983), Bekker (1994), Angrist...