The usual index of leading indicators has constant weights on its components and is therefore implicitly premised on the assumption that the dynamical properties of the economy remain the same over time and across phases of the business cycle. We explore the possibility that the business cycle...

This article presents a non-Markovian regime switching model in which the regime states depend on the sign of an autoregressive latent variable. The magnitude of the latent variable indexes the `strength' of the state or how deeply the system is embedded in the current regime. The autoregressive...

Three basic mechanisms are behind the statistical relationship between fertility decisions and labor force participation decisions. 1) Causal direct effect: the time spent in child-care reduces the labor market effort leading to a temporary drop in post-birth labor force participation. 2) Causal...

This article presents a non-Markovian regime switching model in which the regime states depend on the sign of an autoregressive latent variable. The magnitude of the latent variable indexes the `strength' of the state or how deeply the system is embedded in the current regime. The autoregressive...