A large number of microeconomic decision variables such as investments, prices, inventories or employment are characterized by intermittent large adjustments. The behavior of those variables has been often modeled as following state-dependent rules. The optimality of such state-dependent rules...

Conventional time series analysis, focusing exclusively on a time series at a given scale, lacks the ability to explain the nature of the data generating process. A process equation that successfully explains daily price changes, for example, is unable to characterize the nature of hourly price...

In this paper we provide an explicit characterization of the escape dynamics for the Phellps problem of government controlling inflation with adaptive learning of the approximate Phillips curve, alternative to the one considered by Cho, Williams and Sargent (2002) (CWS in sequel). Our approach...

This article presents a comparative analysis of four macroeconometric models whose proprietors participated in a model comparison conference focused on the new euro area economy. One model, the Area-Wide Model recently developed at the European Central Bank, treats the whole area as a single...

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most...

The so-called purchasing-power parity (PPP) puzzle takes one of two forms. In its first form, early tests of the PPP-hypothesis failed to reject unit roots in real exchange rates, thus rejecting the hypothesis of PPP holding in the long term. In the more recent literature, the literature on the...

This paper proposes unit root tests based on partially adaptive estimation. The proposed tests provide an intermediate class of inference procedures that are more efficient than the traditional OLS-based methods and simpler than unit root tests based on fully adaptive estimation using...

This paper considers tests of misspecification in a heteroscedastic transformation model. We derive Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistics for (i) testing functional form and heteroscedasticity jointly, (ii) testing functional form in the presence of heteroscedasticity, and (iii) testing...

The recent literature on “convergence� of cross-country per capita incomes has been dominated by two competing hypotheses: “global convergence� and “club-convergence�. This debate has recently relied on the study of limiting...