This paper addresses the relationship between individual perceptions and the uses of a business language. Perceptions are modeled explicitly, and are not common knowledge. A business language enables individuals with different perceptions to trade. I present a formal criterion for faithfulness...

This paper investigates whether individual investors adjust their stock trading according to their stock selection abilities, which can be inferred from their trading history. Fixed-effect panel regressions provide strong evidence that the ability to forecast future stock returns significantly...

Most investors purchase securities knowing they will resell those securities in the future. Uncertainty about the preferences of future trading counter-parties causes randomness in future resale prices that we call liquidity risk. It is natural to suppose that investors are asymmetrically...

``Limits of Arbitrage" theories require that the marginal investor in a particular asset market be a specialized arbitrageur. Then the constraints faced by this arbitrageur (i.e. capital constraints) feed through into asset prices. We examine the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in this...

This paper investigates whether Japanese banks had been following herd behavior in the domestic loan market from 1975 through 2002. Applying the technique developed by Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (LSV) (1992, J. of Fin. Econ.) to the data of loans outstanding to different types of...

The paper applies a popular methodology of competing risks to the analysis of the timing and interaction between the Deutsche Mark/U.S. dollar transactions, quotes, and cancellations in the Reuters D2000-2 electronic brokerage system. Consistently with previous stock market studies, the bid-ask...

We study how heterogeneous beliefs affect returns and examine whether heterogeneous beliefs are a priced factor in traditional asset pricing models. To accomplish this task, we suggest new empirical measures based on the disagreement among analysts about expected (short-term and long-term)...

This paper examines whether permanent earnings growth, crucial to stock valuation, increased during the last decade as suggested by proponents of the 'New Economy.' Using S\&P 500 earnings for 1951-2000, we do not find strong evidence of either a one-time structural break or gradual change....

This paper develops a new covariance-based test of orthogonality that may be attractive when regressors have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard regression-based orthogonality tests can suffer from (i) size distortions and (ii) uncertainty regarding the appropriate model in...

Using the tick-by-tick yen/dollar exchange rate, this paper examines the effect of Japanese banking crisis in late 1997 on the foreign exchange market. By high-frequency methodology, GARCH estimation and variance-ratio tests, the existence of a structural break in the foreign exchange market at...