A new model is developed that augments a structural VAR specification with a GARCH covariance matrix. The model is utilised to study time series dependencies between three size-sorted portfolios from the Australian Stock Exchange. Even after accounting for contemporaneous correlations the...

Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place,...

We explore the role of dealers to determine whether they are liquidity-providing market makers or liquidity-taking information traders. Standard models of market making, such as Kyle (1985) and Grossman and Miller (1988), imply a negative contemporaneous correlation between market maker order...

This paper examines the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility. It investigates whether implied volatilities contain information about volatility over the remaining life of the option which is not present in past returns....

We explore the role of dealers to determine whether they are liquidity-providing market makers or liquidity-taking information traders. Standard models of market making, such as Kyle (1985) and Grossman and Miller (1988), imply a negative contemporaneous correlation between market maker order...

Exchange rate markets exhibit correlation in the short run, but the issue is whether such correlation lingers over long periods of time, and under extreme events (i.e., either large appreciations or depreciations). In this paper, we analyze dependence between nominal exchange rates under extreme...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the weekend and holiday calendar effects are much stronger and statistically significant in volatility as opposed to expected returns. This paper seeks an explanation for this empirical finding by undertaking a comprehensive investigation of the predictive...

Ultra-high-frequency data is defined to be a full record of transactions and their associated characteristics. In this paper marked point processes are applied to describe ultra-high-frequency data. By producing general marked point process sample function density, inserting the Markov process,...

This paper examines the welfare of consumers in an incomplete markets economy with extrinsic uncertainty. It is shown that the utility of one consumer may be minimized at the Walrasian allocation relative to all other equilibrium allocations for a given security structure. Thus, this consumer...

This paper introduces the Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion and both auto- and cross-correlation, arising with multivariate counts. We model counts with a double Poisson and assume that conditionally on past observations the...