This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques. We implement a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a), which enables one to consider unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical...

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the role of campaign fund in congressional careers. To achieve this goal, we specify a dynamic model of career decisions of a member of Congress. In particular, we model how the amount of campaign funds raised affects the probability of winning...

Students of politics are familiar with two common forms of influence exercised by special interests over politicians: the provision of financial support to favored candidates during election campaigns, and the application of lobbying power when dealing with elected politicians. However, in...

Almost everyone was surprised by the reforms proposed by the Lula administration in Brazil. Once in power, they proposed reforms they voted against when in opposition. We analyze a game in which political parties, with partisan and electoral interest, try to approve reforms that benefit the...

Recorded prices are known to diverge from their "efficient" values due to the presence of market microstructure contaminations. The microstructure noise creates a dichotomy in the model-free estimation of integrated volatility. While it is theoretically necessary to sum squared returns that are...

This paper applies recent tests of stochastic dominance of several orders proposed by Linton, Maasoumi and Whang (2003) to reexamine the equity premium puzzle. An advantage of this nonparametric framework is that it provides a means to assess whether the existence of a premium is due to an...

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the...

It is known that stock returns are affected by monetary policy. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates whether asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public causes the relation between stock returns and monetary policy actions. The paper concludes that...

In this paper, we study implications of quasi-geometric discounting for stochastic properties of asset returns that can be observed in the financial market data. In particular, we emphasize that the dividend income from an asset measured in a unit of account may not reflect the whole dividend...

Most investors purchase securities knowing they will resell those securities in the future. Uncertainty about the preferences of future trading counter-parties causes randomness in future resale prices that we call liquidity risk. It is natural to suppose that investors are asymmetrically...