By using data from surveys of expectations, it is shown that macroeconomic uncertainty, measured by the standard deviation of the expected output growth, the expected unemployment rate, and the expected inflation rate, is negatively related to the expected performance of the economy, proxied by...

The paper develops a unit-root test that allows for an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown functional forms. The test is based on the fact that the behavior of such series can often be captured using a single frequency component of a Fourier approximation. Hence, instead of...

In this paper, we set out the JEM (Japanese Economic Model), a large macroeconomic model of the Japanese Economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas (1976) critique of traditional large macroeconomic models, it can also be used for both...

In this study, we look at the relationship between export stability, investment and economic growth in nine Asian countries using time series data. The few previous time series studies in this area have not paid any attention to stationarity and cointegration issues. We find that in most cases,...

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effects of poverty and educational policies on school attendance, child labour and growth. We consider an OLG model, with parental educational choices. It is assumed there is a trade off between child labour and human capital accumulation. If...

We develop an economic growth model in which both the R&D resources to develop new product applications and the market structure of consumption goods manufacturing are determined endogenously. There exists uncertainty with respect to the development date of an inaugural product, although higher...

In this paper, we formalize the idea of human capital as the ability to follow and enforce the rules necessary for orderly conduct of economic transactions. People in the US and other developed countries stand in lines while waiting for the bus, etc., while in many developing countries lines...

Esteban and Ray (Econometrica 1994) describe a measure of polarization that is closely connected to potential conflict or tension in a society, emphasizing the difference between polarization and inequality. In principle a very highly polarized society may have a low level of inequality...

How do the liquidity functions of banks affect investment and growth at different stages of economic development? How do financial fragility and the costs of banking crises evolve with the level of wealth of countries? We analyze these issues using an overlapping generations growth model where...

This paper studies the costs and benefits of a mixed educational regime in which tax-financed public schools and tuition-financed private schools coexist. In the model, households are not allowed to borrow for education, but have a choice to educate their children in a public or a private...