This paper surveys the economic literature on simple policy rules and analyzes econometric methods used to estimate them, emphasizing effects of model misspecification. We draw attention to inconsistencies in evaluation of the rules and implications for policy advice, which is commonly done...

It is known that stock returns are affected by monetary policy. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates whether asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public causes the relation between stock returns and monetary policy actions. The paper concludes that...

In recent times, economists concur that economy's response to monetary policy is somewhat weaker then they were in the past. However, the cause of such change remains an open issue. One plausible reason for this change could be attributed to the financial reform processes that have brought...

This paper surveys the postwar evolution of Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy. Using both qualitative and quantitative data, we describe the changes in the money supply process in response to changing institutional constraints. We focus on the transition from quantitative to qualitative...

This paper characterizes, empirically, the conduct of monetary policy in a small open economy. In particular, using as a case study the Chilean inflation targeting experience, we assess the role of the exchange rate in the determination of the interest rate. We conclude that Chile has adopted...

This paper evaluates the performance of simple monetary policy rules in a calibrated model for the Chilean economy. The monetary regimes considered are: exchange rate peg, money peg, inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting, and a Taylor rule. We develop a small open economy model...

Many people are fired from their jobs for poor performance. However, it is difficult to distinguish whether they are fired because they are not well suited for their job (sorting explanation) or because the firms are trying to provide incentives for effort (incentive explanation). This paper...

We extend the $\Delta$-rationalizability (see Battigalli and Siniscalchi 2003) to infinite strategic form games with incomplete information. The most important feature of the $\Delta$-rationalizability is that there is no specified epistemic type space \`{a} la Harsanyi. However, we can impose a...

I construct a micro-model to show that a currency crisis can spread from one country to another even when these countries are unrelated in terms of economic fundamentals and there is no capital linkage across countries through a common lender or an interbank market. The key to explaining...

This paper studies the implications of the presence of a large speculator like George Soros during a contagious currency crisis. The model proposes a new contagion channel and shows how a currency crisis can spread from one country to another even when these countries are totally unrelated in...