The usual index of leading indicators has constant weights on its components and is therefore implicitly premised on the assumption that the dynamical properties of the economy remain the same over time and across phases of the business cycle. We explore the possibility that the business cycle...

We show that the higher order biases of instrumental variable statistics in the strong instrument case indicate the degeneracy of the first order asymptotic distributions of these statistics under weak or many instrument asymptotics. We express the higher order approximations using an estimator...

We construct higher order expressions for Wald and Lagrange multiplier (LM) GMM statistics that are based on 2step and continuous updating estimators (CUE). We show that the sensitivity of the limit distribution to weak and many instruments results from superfluous elements in the higher order...

What brings persistence into the macroeconomy? This is one of the big unresolved issues in current macroeconomic theory. Economic models, in fact, typically struggle to imply levels of persistence comparable to those observed in the data. Most of the persistence is therefore introduced by highly...

This paper is concerned with Bayesian reduced rank regression when instruments are weak. There have been a number of studies on weak identification problem with the application of reduced rank regression combined with singular value decomposition (SVD) method in the Bayesian framework, see...

Inference on ordinary unit roots, seasonal unit roots, seasonality and business cycles are fundamental issues in time series econometrics. This paper proposes a novel approach to inference on these features by focusing directly on the roots of the autoregressive polynomial rather than taking the...