This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques. We implement a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a), which enables one to consider unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical...

This paper addresses the relationship between individual perceptions and the uses of a business language. Perceptions are modeled explicitly, and are not common knowledge. A business language enables individuals with different perceptions to trade. I present a formal criterion for faithfulness...

We develop a simple analytical model that highlights the effect of factor rigidities and credit constraints on bankruptcies. In our model, entrepreneurs receive random shocks –positive or negative-- to their working capital, which is needed to pay workers before the output of the firm is...

This paper shows that systemic risk exerts a significant impact on the behavior of depositors, sometimes overshadowing their responses to standard bank fundamentals. Systemic risk can affect market discipline both regardless of and through bank fundamentals. First, worsening systemic conditions...

The paper applies a popular methodology of competing risks to the analysis of the timing and interaction between the Deutsche Mark/U.S. dollar transactions, quotes, and cancellations in the Reuters D2000-2 electronic brokerage system. Consistently with previous stock market studies, the bid-ask...

We study how heterogeneous beliefs affect returns and examine whether heterogeneous beliefs are a priced factor in traditional asset pricing models. To accomplish this task, we suggest new empirical measures based on the disagreement among analysts about expected (short-term and long-term)...

This paper examines whether permanent earnings growth, crucial to stock valuation, increased during the last decade as suggested by proponents of the 'New Economy.' Using S\&P 500 earnings for 1951-2000, we do not find strong evidence of either a one-time structural break or gradual change....

This paper develops a new covariance-based test of orthogonality that may be attractive when regressors have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard regression-based orthogonality tests can suffer from (i) size distortions and (ii) uncertainty regarding the appropriate model in...

Using the tick-by-tick yen/dollar exchange rate, this paper examines the effect of Japanese banking crisis in late 1997 on the foreign exchange market. By high-frequency methodology, GARCH estimation and variance-ratio tests, the existence of a structural break in the foreign exchange market at...

This paper investigates whether individual investors adjust their stock trading according to their stock selection abilities, which can be inferred from their trading history. Fixed-effect panel regressions provide strong evidence that the ability to forecast future stock returns significantly...