This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every...

We examine in this paper the role of an economy's social interaction structure, defined as a graph. Individuals care about the decisions of their neighbors. We extend the behavioral discrete-response rules along the lines of the interactive discrete choice model of Brock and Durlauf (2001) to...

We develop LM-tests of linearity that are consistent against a class of Compound Smooth Transition Autoregressive (CoSTAR) models of the conditional mean. Our method is an extension of the sup-test developed by Bierens (1990) and Bierens and Plobeger (1997), provides maximal power against...