This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every...

We examine in this paper the role of an economy's social interaction structure, defined as a graph. Individuals care about the decisions of their neighbors. We extend the behavioral discrete-response rules along the lines of the interactive discrete choice model of Brock and Durlauf (2001) to...

We develop LM-tests of linearity that are consistent against a class of Compound Smooth Transition Autoregressive (CoSTAR) models of the conditional mean. Our method is an extension of the sup-test developed by Bierens (1990) and Bierens and Plobeger (1997), provides maximal power against...

The recently proposed family of hypernormal density functions possess the analytically convenient and computationally efficient property of closed form moments and anti-derivatives in the univariate case. While this result allows many univariate applications to be solved faster and/or more...

It is now widely understood how to obtain first-order accurate approximations to the solution to a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model). Such solutions are fairly easy to construct and useful for a wide variety of purposes. They are likely to be accurate enough to be a...

In times of low-inflation, conventional monetary policy is perpetually exposed to the risk of being caught by the liquidity trap. As a part of a pre-emptive monetary policy to avoid the liquidity trap, many economists have pointed out that this risk can be possibly circumvented by targeting a...

We present an algorithm and software routines for computing nth-order approximate solutions to dynamic, discrete-time rational expectations models around a nonstochastic steady state. We apply these routines to investigate the optimal monetary policy with commitment (and from a ``timeless...