Economic policy decisions are often informed by empirical economic analysis. While the decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, the analyst is interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on the structural features of a model, such as cointegration, can...

This paper proposes a Structural Error Correction Model (SECM) that allows concurrent estimation of the structural parameters and analysis of cointegration. We amalgamate the Bayesian methods of Kleibergen and Paap (2002) for analysis of cointegration in the ECM, and the Bayesian methods of...

Inference on ordinary unit roots, seasonal unit roots, seasonality and business cycles are fundamental issues in time series econometrics. This paper proposes a novel approach to inference on these features by focusing directly on the roots of the autoregressive polynomial rather than taking the...

In real time forecasting, the sample is usually split into an estimation period of R observations and a prediction period of P observations, where T=R+P. Parameters are often estimated in a recursive manner, initially using R observations, then R+1 observations and so on until T-1 observations...

The present paper is related to the recent discussion about the efficiency of the Reserve Federal Bank on investment decisions. Our aim is not to propose an optimal policy rule but rather to appreciate and to understand the link between the monetary interventions of the FED and capital...

Different criteria exist to define long memory behavior. The two most used relate to the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function of a process, and to the shape of its spectral density. In the case of a long memory process, the asymptotic decay of the autocovariance function is...

Forecasting inflation remains an intriguing research topic among academics and practitioners alike. Recent studies by Stock and Watson (1999 JME, 2003 JEL) have documented the limited usefulness of Phillip curve type models using unemployment or other macroeconomic and financial variables for...

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear difference equations. We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses `Euroland' and US data. The debate has been centered around the...

This paper considers an important practical problem in testing time-series data for nonlinearity in mean. Most popular tests reject the null hypothesis of linearity too frequently if the the data are heteroskedastic. Two approaches to redressing this size distortion are considered, both of which...