the cross section. In our model, investors' income has two sources, wages and dividends, that grow stochastically over … time. As a consequence, the fraction of total income produced by wages changes over time de-pending on economic conditions …

Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel … estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries over 439 months … unemployment rate 12 months in advance based on individuals' fears of unemployment, their perceptions of the economic situation and …