Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2012 we first show that expectations fail to unbiasedness tests and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality. Our...

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates of commodity-producing countries on both the short and the long run. We pay particular attention to the dominant role played by oil among commodities by investigating the potential non-linear effect...

Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition...

This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate movements affect the relationship between oil prices and oil currencies. Estimating a panel cointegrating model between the real exchange rate and its drivers for a sample of 11 OPEC countries and 8 major oil-exporting economies...

Using Consensus Forecast survey data on WTI oil price expectations for three and twelve month horizons over the period November 1989 – December 2008, we find that the rational expectation hypothesis is rejected and that none of the traditional extrapolative, regressive and adaptive processes...