The international financial crisis that started in 2007 and the subsequent end of the long expansion in South Africa has refocused attention on the business cycle. Prior to the crisis, the economies of both developed and developing countries experienced an extended period of low and stable...

This paper develops a new index of economic uncertainty for South Africa for the period 1990-2014 and analyses the macroeconomic impact of changes in this measure. The index is constructed from three sources: (1) Disagreement among professional forecasters about macroeconomic conditions using...