We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of an unchecked ruler making decisions regarding the development of a resource-rich country. Resources serve as collateral and facilitate the acquisition of loans. The ruler chooses either to stay in power while facing the risk of being ousted, or loot...

The financial sector of emerging economies in Africa is characterized by a non-competitive banking sector which dominates any direct participation of agents in asset markets. Based on a variant of Diamond and Dybvig's (1983) model of financial inter-mediation, we formally explain both stylized...

The eyes of the world have, in recent years, been steadfastly focused on China’s economic progress. As China has in recent years emerged as a major player on the world economic stage, its growing relations with other developing regions received much attention. Of particular note is the...

Aumann (1976) derives his famous we cannot agree to disagree result under the assumption of rational Bayesian learning. Motivated by psychological evidence against this assumption, we develop formal models of optimistically, resp. pessimistically, biased Bayesian learning within the framework of...

This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded data set, including sectoral balance sheet variables, we show that the balance sheets...

This paper takes as its starting point established findings on industrial conduct as measured by pricing power in South African industry. The South African findings are contrasted with recent results derived from firm-level data from China and India. A stark contrast emerges between China, with...

This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate. The financial stress indicator variables comprise a set of variables from the main...

This paper attempts to assess the extent of volatility spillovers between the equity market and the foreign exchange market in South Africa. The multi-step family of GARCH models are used for this end, whereby volatility shocks obtained from the mean equation estimation in each market are...

This paper presents a overview and discussion of facts and research findings on South African equity, currency, bond and derivatives markets. It is not a comprehensive literature review, but rather an assessment of where we stand - how the markets have developed, how the main markets compare...

The study analyses the nature and behaviour of volatility, the risk-return relationship and the long-term trend of volatility on the South African equity markets, using aggregate-level, industrial-level and sectoral-level daily data for the period 1995-2009. By employing dummy variables for the...