Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the...

We study the classic transfer problem of predicting the effects of an international transfer on the terms of trade and the current account. A two-country model with debt and capital allows for realistic features of historical transfers: they follow wartime increases in government spending and...

We provide a fast algorithm for calculating the fractional difference of a time series. In standard implementations, the calculation speed (number of arithmetic operations) is of order T^2, where T is the length of the time series. Our algorithm allows calculation speed of order T log(T). For...

We investigate the impact of financial crises on two fundamental features of stock returns, namely, the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect. We apply the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) model for daily stock return data, which includes both features and...

Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should co-integrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods are...

In a recent paper Hualde and Robinson (2011) establish consistency and asymptotic normality for conditional sum-of-squares estimators, which are equivalent to conditional quasi-maximum likelihood estimators, in parametric fractional time series models driven by conditionally homoskedastic...

This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available Matlab program for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. This program replaces an earlier Matlab program by Nielsen and Morin (2014), and although the present Matlab...

We discuss the moment condition for the fractional functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for partial sums of x_{t} = Delta^{-d} u_{t}, where d in (-1/2,1/2) is the fractional integration parameter and u_{t} is weakly dependent. The classical condition is existence of q≥2 and q1/(d+1/2)...

[The original version of this paper appeared as a University of California San Diego working paper in 1990 but has since disappeared from the web. This version includes a new appendix.] This paper provides tables of critical values for some popular tests of cointegration and unit roots. Although...

This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available software package for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model.